Vietnam – the draft national electricity development plan for 2021-2030, with a vision for 2045 is published

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Vietnam’s GDP growth for 2021-2030 is expected to average 6.6% / year and an average of 5.7% for 2031-2045. As a result, the Institute of Energy has calculated that commercial electricity will reach 491 billion kWh by 2030 and 877 billion kWh by 2045. By 2030, the total installed capacity of Vietnam’s electricity sources should be 137.2 GW (including coal-fired power: 27%, gas-fired thermal energy: 21%, hydroelectricity: 18%, renewable energy: 29%, imported energy about 4%, pumped hydroelectricity and other storage devices energy about 1%).

The VIII Electricity Development Planning Project (“PDP 8”) reinforces the Vietnamese government’s current vision to prioritize renewable energy sources in order to minimize the negative impacts caused by power generation on the economy. environment. The import of fuels (coal, LNG) is encouraged as a means of diversifying the country’s primary energy sources, as is the establishment of transmission and distribution network links with China, Laos and Cambodia in order to to maximize the energy potential of each country. Sources of electricity imported from neighboring countries should be considered as priority projects because imported electricity will reduce the environmental impact compared to national production. occurred in recent years.

As for the development of the network, over the period 2021-2030, the MOIT sees the need to build 86 GVA with a capacity of 500 kV per substation and nearly 13,000 km of DLZ. From 2031-2045, an additional construction of 103 GVA with a capacity of 500kV and nearly 6000 substations is necessary. The 220 kV electrical network requires a construction of 95 GVA, or nearly 21,000 km DMZ and 108 GVA, at more than 4,000 km NE.

The total investment capital for the development of electricity during the period 2021-2030 is approximately USD 128.3 billion, of which: USD 95.4 billion for energy sources, USD 32.9 billion for networks. The average capital investment structure will be 74% / 26%.

One of the most notable differences between interim PDP 8 and revised PDP 7 (the latest official national electricity development plan) is the level of demand for electricity between the North and the South. According to PDP 8, the proportion of commercial electricity in the North will gradually increase from 42.4% in 2020 to 45.8% in 2045, while the South will decrease its proportion from 47.4% in 2020 to 43.6% in 2045. By 2040, the North’s commercial demand for electricity will begin to exceed that of the South.

Important information investors should know

Use of coal:

Coal stocks in power plants were at an all time high in 2018 – many plants did not have enough coal to operate, resulting in reduced capacity or even suspension of work units. For example, the Quang Ninh factory sometimes had to shut down 2/4 of its units due to a coal shortage. The capacity to produce domestic anthracite coal to supply the Northeast region is only around 35 million tonnes or 88% of the total demand, so the coal must be imported and blended to meet to consumer demand. In the coming years, the demand for anthracite coal will continue to increase with the commissioning of several new plants such as: Na Duong II, Hai Duong, Thai Binh 2, An Khanh-Bac Giang.

Gas consumption:

Over the period 2010-2019, the annual production of extracted natural gas was 9 to 10 billion m3 / year on average. The gas is currently exploited in 26 gas fields and combined oil and gas fields such as Lan Tay, Lan Do, Bach Ho, Rang Dong, etc. There are around 30 fields that do not yet have a development plan as most of them are small or located in deep water, far from shore, with difficult geographic and geological conditions.

Renewable energy consumption:

At the end of 2020, the total solar power capacity (including floating solar power systems) commissioned was around 17 GW, concentrated in the southern provinces and the central highlands. Transmission networks are not sufficient in quantity, especially in Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan provinces, to accommodate the growing number of solar energy projects with faster construction times than ever thanks to advanced technology. Consequently, most of the projects which have entered into service in these localities are subject to a daily decrease in production capacity to avoid overloading the regional network.

The total wind power capacity commissioned by the end of 2020 is around 600 MW, well below the total wind power capacity approved for inclusion in the revised PDP 7 which reached 12 GW. By 2021, the remaining projects are expected to enter service primarily in the southwest and south-central regions.

The Vietnamese government is reviewing, implementing on a small scale and promoting energy development from flammable ice gas, shale gas, coal gas, liquefied hydrogen gas, biomass and waste.

Use of hydroelectricity:

Vietnam’s total capacity of medium and large hydropower plants that were built up to 2019 is around 17,930 MW. The country’s total small hydropower potential (less than 30 MW) is around 10,000 MW. Due to the impact of SHP on the environment and forest conservation, MOIT conducted a site review and rejected approximately 4000 MW.

Others:

Thermal energy projects included in the revised PDP7 and whose start of operation date is set for 2021-2025 are considered as projects that will be definitively constructed and prioritized for development.

Power source projects with a capacity of 500 MW or more and serving as a base station will also be considered as priority investment projects.

At the time of writing, there is no list of projects included or to be included in Power Development Planning VIII. Below we provide lists of potential offshore wind projects and thermal energy sources to consider for investment. Please note that: (i) All projects listed here will not be included in PDP 8; (ii) A number of projects included in the lists are already included in the revised PDP 7.

In order for your project to be considered for inclusion in national electricity development planning, investors must complete an assortment of procedures and obtain several permits, including a feasibility study and tours or conferences with competent authorities. For example, wind power developers may need to obtain a temporary building permit for the erection of wind measuring towers or approval of vertical clearance if your project site is close to aviation limits. .

When a project is included in the national electricity development planning, it means that the government has officially approved the implementation of this project. This is one of the most critical stages in the development of energy projects in Vietnam, because without government approval for the inclusion of the project in the PDP, there is no way for investors to achieve a project. After this step, investors will need to acquire a decision on investment policy, followed by an investment registration certificate.

List of potential offshore wind projects to consider for investment

List of potential offshore wind projects to consider for investment

List of potential thermal energy sources to consider for investment

List of potential thermal energy sources to consider for investment


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