NFL Betting Line Movements Analysis for Week 9 (2021)

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After a strong three-week run for NFL betting favorites last Sunday, the pendulum swung sharply the other way. Sports betting cleaned up the shop of public bettors last week as seven underdogs not only covered the spread, but won their respective matches. From Mike White and the New York Jets to Trevor Siemian and the New Orleans Saints, it has been a week filled with surprises and upheaval. While it will be difficult to have the same number of underdog wins in week 9, it seems wise to expect more mayhem. Bombshell reporting, major injury updates and changing public perceptions have all been the source of various NFL Week 9 betting line moves that have already taken place.

The following article highlights some of the biggest and most notable NFL line moves and breaks down what could be behind each change. Like always, a table containing both the opening and current bet odds for each match in week 9 is included at the end of this column.

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NFL Week 9 Line Moves Significant | Point spreads

Texans to Dolphins (MIA from -7 to -5.5)

Sunday’s game between the Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins is far from the “flagship” NFL betting game on the Week 9 slate. However, this game has already seen a significant line move, and there could very well be more before kick-off. Houston coach David Culley announced Thursday that Tyrod Taylor will be activated off IR and start Sunday’s game. Prior to Taylor’s injury, the Texans were averaging over six yards per game offensively. They beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in the season opener and led the Cleveland Browns at halftime of Week 2. However, we haven’t seen Taylor on the field since the end of the first. half of that eventual loss to Cleveland.

It comes at a reasonable time against a Dolphins team that hasn’t won a game since Week 1. With Taylor under center as opposed to Davis Mills, the Texans have a legitimate chance to not only cover that gap, but also to win the game instantly. Unfortunately, the NFL betting market reacted to Taylor’s status update by closing the gap for a full touchdown to favor the Dolphins by 5.5. It still seems way too high for this fairly even showdown between AFC bottom-feeders.

Broncos at Cowboys (DAL from -7.5 to -10)

The NFL betting public is in love with the Dallas Cowboys after toppling the Minnesota Vikings with quarterback Cooper Rush in charge last week. All signs point to Dak Prescott back under Dallas center this week. As a result, they were confirmed as big favorites against a struggling Denver Broncos team. The market carried the Cowboys opening line -7.5 to double digits earlier in the week.

Although the Broncos ended a four-game losing streak last week, it wasn’t a good home effort. Denver also traded main linebacker Von Miller on the deadline earlier this week. In addition, the Broncos’ defense was considerably overrated at the start of the year. As it stands, they only rank 25th in adjusted efficiency and feel they are struggling to contain Dallas’ multitude of weapons on Sunday.

Packers at Chiefs (KC from -2.5 to -7)

The real report in the NFL betting world this week was that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers would not be available for Sunday’s highly anticipated showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. As a result, a betting line that was tending towards pick’em after another disappointing performance from the Chiefs last week has been adjusted to a full touchdown. This match will now be Jordan Love’s first career start. Bettors aren’t expecting much from the 2020 first-round pick. Even though the Chiefs struggled relative to preseason expectations, Patrick Mahomes and Co. looks set for a comfortable win over the course of the season. week 9.

NFL Week 8 Line Moves Significant | Totals

Patriots vs. Panthers (44.5 to 41.5)

One of the NFL betting underdogs that caused the surprise last week was the New England Patriots. They’ll be back on the road this Sunday to face a Carolina Panthers team without starting quarterback Sam Darnold. The good start to the year in Charlotte has come to an abrupt end in recent weeks. While the Panthers managed a four-game slide last week, it wasn’t exactly on offense. Darnold was run over while trying to run for a late touchdown and was only a limited participant in training this week.

If Darnold is indeed ruled out, former XFL star PJ Walker will start for the Panthers. Either way, it will be a difficult task trying to solve Bill Belichick’s defensive intrigues. At the same time, New England has established its offensive identity in recent weeks. Damien Harris led a pounding effort against the Los Angeles Chargers last week. So the Patriots might very well be able to sink it down Carolina’s throat as well. The Panthers only rank 19th in adjusted run defense. So it’s hard to imagine both teams scoring 20 points in this one.

Falcons at Saints (45.5 to 42.5)

Injuries and the absence of key players also impacted the NFL’s betting totals in Sunday’s NFC South clash between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. While the Saints lost quarterback Jameis Winston for last year last week, Atlanta also lost leading spreader Calvin Ridley, who is retiring for personal reasons. Expecting Trevor Siemian to repeat last week’s exploits may not be wise for punters. Plus, the Saints’ defense is arguably the best in the league in the first eight weeks. Both offenses could face a rough ride in this one.

Besides personnel factors, the trends also lean towards a defensive affair on Sunday. The recent one-on-one encounters between these division rivals have been bleak. Both clashes last year fell under 40 points overall.

Check out all of our NFL game previews and picks for the week >>

Week 9 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all of the Week 9 games, including those discussed above.

Note: All current quotes reflect lines at 3 p.m. EDT on Thursday, November 4

Match Opening lines Current Vegas Consensus
Jets
Foals
44
-14.5
45.5
-ten
Texans
dolphins
45.5
-7
46.5
-5.5
Broncos
Cowboys
49
-7.5
49.5
-ten
Vikings
Ravens
49.5
-6
49.5
-6
Patriots
Panthers
-2.5
44.5
-3.5
41.5
Invoices
Jaguars
-10.5
49.5
-14.5
48.5
brown
Bengals
45
-3
47
-2.5
Raiders
giants
-2.5
47.5
-3
46.5
Falcons
Saints
45.5
-5.5
42.5
-6.5
Chargers
Eagles
-3
50
-1.5
50
Packers
Chefs
53.5
-2.5
48
-7
Cardinals
49ers
-3
47
TO TAKE
TO TAKE
Titans
Rams
52
-4
53.5
-7.5
Bear
Steelers
40.5
-5
40
-6.5

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Henry John is a featured writer for BettingPros. To learn more about Henry, check out his archive and follow it @HankTimeHenry.

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